Suitable Methods for Solving COVID-19 Model in Iraq
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31185/wjps.132Keywords:
COVID-19 epidemic model, Variation iteration method, Finite difference method, Mean Monte Carlo finite difference method, Mean Latin Hypercube Finite difference method.Abstract
Because the Coronavirus epidemic spread in Iraq, the COVID-19 epidemic of people quarantined due to infection is our application in this work. The numerical simulation methods used in this research are more suitable than other analytical and numerical methods because they solve random systems. Since the Covid-19 epidemic system has random variables coefficients, these methods are used. Suitable numerical simulation methods have been applied to solve the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq. The analytical results of the Variation iteration method (VIM) are executed to compare the results. One numerical method which is the Finite difference method (FD) has been used to solve the Coronavirus model and for comparison purposes. The numerical simulation methods which are Mean Monte Carlo Finite difference (MMC_FD) and Mean Latin Hypercube Finite difference (MLH_FD), are also used to solve the proposed epidemic model under study. The obtained results are discussed, tabulated, and represented graphically. Finally, the absolute error is the tool used to compare the numerical simulation solutions from 2020 to 2024 years. The behavior of the Coronavirus in Iraq has been expected for 4 years from 2020 to 2024 using the proposed numerical simulation methods.
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Huisen, R.W., S.H. Abd Almjeed, and A.S. Mohammed, A Reliable Iterative
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College of Education for Pure Science / Ibn Al-Haitham.
Mohammed, S.J. and M.A. Mohammed, Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta
Method to Solve the Influenza Model. Iraqi Journal of Science, 2022: p. 1158-1177.
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Feng, L.-X., et al., Modelling the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the
COVID-19 infections in the UK. Math Biosci Eng, 2020. 17(4): p. 3618-3636.
National Health Commission of Iraq daily reports on novel corona virus (in Iraq).
cited 13 July 2022; Available from: http://www.emro.who.int/iraq/news/.
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Coronavirus world meter website. [cited 13 July 2022; Available from:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus.
Riou, J. and C.L. Althaus, Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan
novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020.
Eurosurveillance, 2020. 25(4): p. 2000058.
World Health organization, coronavirus disease (COVID-19). [cited 13 July 2022;
Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/overview.
Chen, N., et al., Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019
novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. The lancet,
395(10223): p. 507-513.
Kareem, A.M. and S.N. Al-Azzawi, A stochastic differential equations model for the
spread of coronavirus COVID-19): the case of Iraq. Iraqi Journal of Science, 2021:
p.1025-1035.
Ghadeer, E.T. and M.A. Mohammed, Solving Nonlinear COVID-19 Mathematical
Model Using a Reliable Numerical Method. Ibn AL-Haitham Journal For Pure and
Applied Sciences, 2022. 35(2): p. 97-107.
Ahmed, A., et al., Analysis coronavirus disease (COVID-19) model using numerical
approaches and logistic model. Aims Bioeng, 2020. 7(3): p. 130-146.
Mohammed, D.A., et al., Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak by the
Numerical Modelling. 2020.
Ghadeer, E.T. and M.A. Mohammed, Applying a suitable approximate-simulation
technique of an epidemic model with random parameters. International Journal of
Nonlinear Analysis and Applications, 2022.
Mohammed, M.A., et al. Numerical solution for weight reduction model due to
health campaigns in Spain. in AIP Conference Proceedings. 2015. AIP Publishing
LLC.
Sabaa, M.A. and M.A. Mohammed, Approximate Solutions of Nonlinear Smoking
Habit Model. Iraqi Journal of Science, 2020: p. 435-443.
Mohammed, S.J. and M.A. Mohammed. Runge-kutta Numerical Method for
Solving Nonlinear Influenza Model. in Journal of Physics: Conference Series.
IOP Publishing.
Abed, S.M. and M.A. AL-Jawary, Efficient iterative methods for solving the sir
epidemic model. Iraqi Journal of Science, 2021: p. 613-622.
Huisen, R.W., S.H. Abd Almjeed, and A.S. Mohammed, A Reliable Iterative
Transform Method for Solving an Epidemic Model. Iraqi Journal of Science, 2021:
p. 4839-4846.
Sabaa, M.A., M.A. Mohammed, and S.H. Abd Almjeed, Approximate solutions for
alcohol consumption model in spain. Ibn AL-Haitham Journal For Pure and
Applied Science, 2019. 32(3): p. 153-164.
Baba, I.A. and F.A. Rihan, A fractional–order model with different strains of
COVID-19. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2022: p.
Vijayalakshmi, G., A fractal fractional order vaccination model of COVID-19
pandemic using Adam’s moulton analysis. Results in Control and Optimization,
: p. 100144.
Mohammed, M., et al., Mean Monte Carlo finite difference method for random
sampling of a nonlinear epidemic system. Sociological Methods & Research, 2019.
(1): p. 34-61.
Mohammed, M.A., et al., A non-conventional hybrid numerical approach with multi-
dimensional random sampling for cocaine abuse in Spain. International Journal of
Biomathematics, 2018. 11(08): p. 1850110.
Sabaa, M.A., Modified Numerical Simulation Technique for Solving Nonlinear
Epidemic Models, in Department of Mathematics. 2019, University of Baghdad:
College of Education for Pure Science / Ibn Al-Haitham.
Mohammed, S.J. and M.A. Mohammed, Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta
Method to Solve the Influenza Model. Iraqi Journal of Science, 2022: p. 1158-1177.
Smith, G.D., G.D. Smith, and G.D.S. Smith, Numerical solution of partial
differential equations: finite difference methods. 1985: Oxford university press.
He, J.-H., Variational iteration method–a kind of non-linear analytical technique:
some examples. International journal of non-linear mechanics, 1999. 34(4): p. 699-
He, J., A new approach to nonlinear partial differential equations.
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 1997. 2(4): p.
-235.
Esmaeil, M.M., Solution of Fuzzy Initial Value Problem Using Variational
Iteration Method. Engineering and Technology Journal, 2014. 32(2 Part (B)
Scientific).
Sobol, I.M., A primer for the Monte Carlo method. 2018: CRC press.
Mohsen, A.A., et al., Global stability of COVID-19 model involving the quarantine
strategy and media coverage effects. AIMS public Health, 2020. 7(3): p. 587.
Coronavirus world meter website, Iraq Population. [cited 13 July 2022; Available
from: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/iraq-population/.
Feng, L.-X., et al., Modelling the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the
COVID-19 infections in the UK. Math Biosci Eng, 2020. 17(4): p. 3618-3636.
National Health Commission of Iraq daily reports on novel corona virus (in Iraq).
cited 13 July 2022; Available from: http://www.emro.who.int/iraq/news/.
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